** all estimated attendance calculations here assume there are no competing theaters in your area or within a nearby drivable radius **
*** this is only one method that I use to evaluate a target trade area; in my own financial modeling I typically use 3 separate methods and then derive a discounted average from those methods to look at breakeven levels for a potential project ***
1) Go to a demographic/statistical website like
www.city-data.com or the US Census website
2) Pull the total population within your target area/zip code/county, etc
3) MPAA annual reports estimate in aggregate that approximately 70% of the US population goes to the movies at least once per year; multiply your trade area population by 0.7 (my note: if you want to be conservative, assume a lower penetration rate)
4) the 'average' movie patron (outside of major metro areas) purchases roughly 4 movie tickets per year; multiply your result from <<step 3>> by 4; this will give you an rough estimated number of tickets that can be sold under a baseline scenario for your trade area
5) use a per cap average ticket price (make it realistic to your locale) to derive a basic revenue figure for ticket sales in your trade area
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