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A movie theatre owner in my town made an interesting comment at a local rotary meeting last week, and I was wondering your thoughts....

He was a speaker at the meeting, and during that speech he made the statement that films were going all digital in 2-3 years and that "most movie theatres will have to close because they won't be able to afford the conversion"

Is he insane or do you see some truth here? Especially concerning the timeline...

I believe many theatres will convert to digital within the next 10 years. There is a buying "club" that helps reduce the price of digital projectors for independent theatres which will make it easier for more small town theatres to buy them. But I do not believe film will be eliminated for at least 20 years if at all. Digital will eventually allow features to be sent via satellite. Right now there are about 100 theatres in the U.S. (primarily multiplexes) that are equipped to show digital films in one auditorium. From where I am in southern Oregon the nearest one is a CineMark house in Eugene three hours north. Your speaker was stating his opinion and was perhaps a little frightened that digital was going to drive him out of business. Many exhibitors felt the same way when sound was introduced.

While I agree with much of what Bob said, especially that film will be around for some time... 5 to 10 years, the changeover is happening at a much greater pace then what he suggested. There are well over 5000 screens presently using digital projection. Carmike and Rave Cinemas are two companies that have completely re-equipped with digital projection. A plan has been reached with Digital Cinema Implementation Partners to convert 20,000 screens within the next several years. There are about 38,000 screens in the USA at the present time. Granted... the present financial situation in the world today is slowing that down at the present time, but it is going to happen. Whenever it does happen, it will force a lot of small town and independent theatre operators out of business.

Just don't expect it to happen in the next two or three years. Five, maybe... but I doubt it.

RoxyVaudeville wrote, in part:That's a very deceptive number. It includes thousands of auditoriums equipped with non-theatrical projectors that are only suitable for pre-show presentations. These projectors are not suitable for first run motion pictures. Their resolution is too low, their lamps are not bright enough and their contrast ratio is too low.


Alan G

That's interesting, but I wonder how accurate your statement is. According to the March 9 Wall Street Journal, Carmike accounts for 2,147 digital screens... almost half of the 5,000 screens that Christie is taking credit for. Christie gained a huge PR coup over the buy, and many have wondered how much they might have sweetened the deal for an exhibitor, fresh out of bankruptcy.

Of the digital installs that are left, I would seriously doubt you could make a case that 'thousands' have the characteristics you describe. Of the lists I've seen published, it seems to me that there very well could be 2,800 other qualified theatrical installations, spread out over the country.

IMHO, the biggest problem with the whole digital push is that NOBODY knows what they're talking about, yet everyone seems to have some date in their head when we'll either have to be digital or close our doors. It started when George Lucas arrogantly decreed we'd have to be digital or not get his next Star Wars release. Since then, others have suggested they'd release in digital only, only to find that their fractional share of the 5,000 total screens wouldn't quite qualify as a "wide release".

Nobody knows when, or if digital will become the only available way to go. Nobody knows if it'll be 2k, 4k, a combination, or if another process will be introduced, further diluting the available market.
Nobody knows if digital will coexist with film and if so, for how long.
Nobody knows if 3D can survive the recurring fees that are imposed on the technology by the manufacturers (TI is also lining up at the 3D trough).
Nobody knows how low the cost of digital will go, if financing will be available to everyone, who will pay for it, whether you will qualify or have to self-finance, and when or if any of this will happen before we're all too old to care.

For certain, we're all inundated with the opinions of the studios,
manufacturers and integrators, and unfortunately, more than a few of us are all too happy to buy into their wishful thinking.

Years after we were first 'notified' of film's impending demise, we continue to stress out over the potential enevitabilities we've conjured up in our heads, and worry about whether the digital steamroller will catch up to us this year... or maybe next year... or maybe.... .

I'm all for watching the process. I have no difficulty with digital's cheerleaders. But please... if you're going to toss out numbers, dates and times, doom and gloom, basing it on verifiable fact would be MUCH appreciated over wild speculation, of which there's an abundance right now.

I am just now starting a business plan for a second run theater that I would like to expand across a few states and was wondering how the change to digital projection would effect me and what should I be doing/planning for in light of this?

Well...

IMHO, second runs will be the first to go. There will be no VPFs from studios to support the equipment. Even the CBG did not plan on equipping digital equipment for second runs until the first tun equipment was being replaced. Kinda of like the little brother getting hand me down clothes that were new for the older brother. Except in this case, do you really want hand me down digital equipment?

Fortunately right now, film equipment is cheap. Just do not plan for film availability past 3 years from now. JMHO.

Speaking of the buying "club" Bob mentioned, has any CBG member received equipement yet?, On schedule for installation within 1 year from now?

Have not heard much about the CBG lately.