At some point in time, that could be a very good question. Whether that time is here yet is probably just as good.
A couple of things get my attention in this regard, though past that point, I'd have to defer to people with more knowledge than I...
First, is the fact that the chains are still, incredibly, building new theatres... seemingly, wherever they can find enough empty land for the building and parking lot. With few exceptions, these new theatres are equipped with 35mm film projectors. Most accommodation for digital is in the advertising area.
Being predominately paper entities (not a lot of real estate), it seems to me that these companies would have a lot to explain to their stockholders, were they to suddenly find themselves looking at replacing a fairly substantial capital investment before it could be amortized. Since that seems unlikely to me, the fact that they're still buying a ton of film gear must mean something.
Second, and John Pytlak could elaborate a bit on this one: Kodak continues to spend R&D money on... ready?.... F I L M !!! Granted, it may take a whole lotta years before the 35mm infrastructure can be totally replaced. However, the product they're putting out right now is pretty darned good. If film were truly at the end of its life, one would think Kodak could jump totally on the digital bandwagon and allow its film products to coast to a graceful end... still serving well to the finish.
Some theatres are building on a totally-digital infrastructure. We have one in Washington, and techs on another board speak of other start-ups that are either fully-digital, or nearly so. However, you can count these examples on a couple of hands. Finally, not all studios are fully committed to providing digital content. If you're planning on running anything but first-run releases, it could be a very long time before all the films you might play would be converted.
Timing and education would seem to be the goals right now. The equipment is out there. Is right now the best time to go digital, or should you wait a little longer for the systems and financing structures to mature a bit? If you don't jump in right now, you're in good company. A whole lot of larger exhibitors haven't yet made the move. You could learn a lot by watching how smoothly their transition goes.
If you're worried about the prospect of having a booth full of new, but unusable 35mm gear laying about, maybe you should consider used machinery. Most any projector in the XL or Century line can give many years of service, and parts are readily available at very reasonable prices. Strong and Christie platters are sturdy and reliable, and available on the used market. Even if you got as few as 3-5 years out of a decent set of projectors and platters, they wouldn't owe you much, but could look as good on the screen as newer machinery.
Properly designed, your sound system can bridge both technologies. Pay close attention to that area. Then you can add digital when the time is right for you, and if the industry realy takes hold, you can phase your projector out without feeling guilty about what you paid for it.
That's how I'd be looking at it, especially in a case where I was looking to formalize a financing plan right now. However, the great part of boards like this is the perspectives of others, so hopefully we'll get some more input for you.
Good luck!
[This message has been edited by rodeojack (edited May 09, 2006).]
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