I nedd some experienced input on realistically defining the geographic market area for a proposed theater (I'm thinking triplex)and identifying my competition.
Here's some info about my community:
A coastal community in the southeaster U.S. County population is 326,000 (2000 census). County-wide pop. density is 570/sq. mile. 17% of pop. is ages 5-24 and tends to be more concentrated in the northern part of the county (the main city is there). About 21% of pop. is age 60-74. These retirees are all over, but their concentration is a little more to the southern part of the county. I've lived in this area nearly all my life and my perception is that folks are not likely to drive from the south to the north to see a movie. However, we seem to have a lot of restaurants (per capita income is near the top of the state and healthy). This tells me people around here like to go out for food and entertainment.
Here's how the other theaters stack up: AMC has 12 first-run screens at the mall located just north of the mid-county area. Regal has 6 first-run screens in the southern part of the county and a 20 screener located on Main Street of the main northern city. There is an 8 screen, 2nd-run theater in a shopping center right on the northern line of the county (don't know ownership, but it was Cobb). Finally, there's a triplex arthouse theater (shows some Hollywood first runs) in the main northern city less than a mile from Regal's megaplex.
That's 49 total screens in a county of 326,000, but 41 are first run and of those, 38 are exclusively Hollywood "mainstream" first run.
My thought is to open a triplex cafe-style cinema with seating similar to a dinner theater. Films would be primarily first run with some independent and foreign mixed in. We have a pretty active "cheese & croissant" artsy crowd in this area. Their exclusive venue now is the downtown arthouse triplex, but they have lousy parking.
My primary approach would be to offer a more comfortable setting than AMC & Regal- better food, cleaner, more personable (owner operated) service.
Questions: Should I consider the 2nd run screens as competition when I want to be first run?
How far away from other first run screens should I locate my screens? That is, what is the limit (miles or time) that the average patron will drive to see a first run movie (assuming there's a choice of directions and all other things being equal). Asked another way, if I have my eye on a potential site what diameter circle should I draw around it for my market area?
Thanks.