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<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial, helvetica">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by leeler:
so, why be an early adopter?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

For the same reasons people wait 24 hrs in line for the newest video game console, cell phone, or Tickle-Me-Elmo doll. There is no good reason to switch to digital now unless you're the type who has to have the latest gizmos. There are techies out there who truly cannot help themselves. It's sad, really (and expensive).

You do have the option of creating additional revenue by showing movies in 3-D and offering video gaming however, but most megaplexes with digital capabilities don't seem to be taking advantage of those options. They just want digital because it's digital. It's being pushed on us constantly too, which gives the false impression that it's necessary. It's that keeping up with the Jones' thing.

But at the same time, I believe it's necessary for all of us to keep up with what's happening in the exhibiting world whether we like it or agree with it or not. Digital conversion will happen, it's just a matter of time, so it's only wise to keep abreast.

Does this mean there will be used equipment flooding the market and available cheap? Could be good news for those of us who cannot see going digital for awhile. How long do you think film will still be made available?

It's tough to see through my crystal ball reading D-Cinema predictions for the future, but that being said, here are some realities:

1. Majority of 35mm film stock used to be sold for comsumer cameras, NOT motion picture prints. We all know what has happened to consumer photography. What will that mean to raw film stock prices as we move forward, and how will the studios respond to increasing print costs?
2. Regal, AMC and Cinemark will begin rolling out 14,000 screens of D-Cinema conversion next year. This is a 4-5 year process, by their own admission. There are several other planned deployments from AccessIT, Digiserve, Technicolor, etc. Seems like film used film equipment will be readily and cheaply available.
3. Cost of D-Cinema equipment has dropped in half in only two years. What will happen in another two years, especially will the volume of sales noted above?
4. Virtually all US studio releases are now available in Digital.

Based on the above, film will be around for AT LEAST another 5 years. I would predict another 10 years, but that's just my opinion. It is safe to say, however, that our industry will be 99% digital at some point in the forseable future. Everybody should be planning for it, if only by upgrading sound systems to meet the DCI spec.

Welcome to the forums, Scott.

When you talk about 99% of screens being digital at some point in the foreseeable future, is that worldwide or just in America? I've read comments elsewhere that much of the rest of the world will lag behind in the adoption of digital. Do you think this is true? If so, how will that affect the availability of film after 5 or 10 years?

Great question. I was referring to the US market. India, as an example, is the largest movie producer in the world. If they choose to continue to provide release on 35mm, then obviously our industry will be unique. My GUESS is that the rest of world has no restriction on equipment, like we do with the DCI, and that less expensive projection methods will rapidly obsolete 35mm by sheer economy. The other question is that if the rest of the world, or at least some markets stay with 35mm, then Hollywood will have to continue to make dubbed and subtitled prints if they want to play that market. But does that make them run English prints for us? Perhaps. Could the day come when you have to pay extra to receive a 35mm print, rather than taking it digitally? Hmmm.