When John Pytlak was with us, this was a frequent subject. His comments are:
Much depends on the efficiency of your lamphouse, shutter, lens, and port glass and the gain of your screen. Based on the Strong "Lens Selector and Picture Size Computer", a good "rule of thumb" is approximately 5 watts per square foot of screen area for a matte white (gain=1) screen, two blade shutter, and typical lens and port glass.
Based on that, you'd be looking at nearly 17,000 watts. As that's probably not practical, it looks like you'd need a serious lamp and a gain screen, if you're trying for standards. We have screens like that in Seattle, and they're all running 7k bulbs in newer Strong or Christie SLC consoles.
As for a projector, I'm not sure your screen size makes the decision that much different. Jitter on any projector will look worse with larger images, and all projectors can have it.
With a Century, Simplex, or Christie, you probably wouldn't be able to tell the difference. I'm told that higher wattage installs are best with curved gates. Otherwise, one machine is probably as good as another.