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TOPIC: shrinking window

Re: shrinking window 30 Nov 2005 14:52 #12036

  • outaframe
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This points to the fact that the studios are ULTIMATELY working toward DIRECT SALE of their product to the consumer, and ELIMINATING US (and all the other "middlemen") in a greedy pursuit of ALL THE PROFITS... They want it ALL, and IMMEDIATELY...

Making 3,000+ prints for a release date is a relatively new idea that co-incides with development of VHS/DVD, and acknowledges (and fosters) the "fad of the moment" situation that movies are NOW... Back when movies were released in an ORDERLY playdown from major market first run to subsequent run in smaller markets, and sometimes re-release when they had TIME to create an audience, print runs of such magnitude weren't even considered... Theaters did their advertizing on a LOCAL level and SOLD the picture to their LOCAL audience... Pictures with LEGS and GOOD WORD OF MOUTH could still sell well, even YEARS after their initial release, but in order to MAXIMIZE VHS/DVD and pay cable sales, this has been sacrificed to grab ALL the money just as FAST as possible...

As soon as they can come up with a workable way to sell DIRECTLY to the consumer, WE, along with all the ancillary markets will be kicked to the curb... The "theater experience" will join Vaudeville and live broadcast TV as another relic of the past... SAD, but that's where this is headed, and the studios are LEADING THE WAY...



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Re: shrinking window 30 Nov 2005 22:44 #12037

No, No, No. I'm sorry, but with some of the research I've been doing lately, our downfall right now is a combination of three things.

1. The quality of presentation in theatres. This includes the control that management has over thier various audiences in the building. That idiot that needs to be told to "STFU!" needs to be kindly escorted out of the theatre without a refund. A policy is a rule, and rules must be obided.

2. The shrinking window. 'Nuff said.

3. The quality of the product. Everything stinks... Besides a few good titles: Harry Potter, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and (the underpromoted) Mr. & Mrs. Smith.

[This message has been edited by Andrew McCrea (edited December 01, 2005).]
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Re: shrinking window 30 Nov 2005 23:56 #12038

  • BurneyFalls
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Going back to Igor... When do we stop showing Disney product en masse?
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Re: shrinking window 01 Dec 2005 10:03 #12039

  • reelman
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As the roundtable discussion in the November issue of Boxoffice magazine makes clear, Iger is pratically alone in his views on the DVD window. Most all of the other exec's would not(atleast publicly) come out in favor of a furthering narrowing of the window. My guess is that Iger will lead the way and they'll sit back and see what happens.

As far as boycotting Disney product, my bank account can't afford it. To borrow a phrase...can't live with 'em, can't live without 'em.

I think it might be interesting to see how quickly Disney comes to DVD with their two current hits, Chicken Little and especially Narnia. This is Iger's first real opportunity since taking over to shorten the window on a major hit film.
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Re: shrinking window 01 Dec 2005 10:06 #12040

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[This message has been edited by reelman (edited December 01, 2005).]
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Re: shrinking window 01 Dec 2005 19:23 #12041

  • Narrow Gauge
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The first picture to bypass is Bubble January 27 from Mark Cuban and Sodahead. Without a zero tolerance and a unified front I am less than optimistic about the long term.
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Re: shrinking window 01 Dec 2005 21:51 #12042

I agree with Burney. I think that we should just try to avoid Disney product. They cut into our bottom line with their high percentage and requirement of no ads.

I know that that's not practical, but when they don't give a damn about us, why give a damn about them?

Let them be a straight to consumer studio, and I think they'll come back crawling on their knees.
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Re: shrinking window 06 Dec 2005 10:27 #12043

  • reelman
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And once again this week- Iger on going it alone:

Disney CEO Robert Iger appears to be bracing himself for a war with theater owners over his determination to eliminate the delay between the time a film is released in theaters and the time it is released on DVD. In an interview with today's (Monday) Walt Street Journal, Iger said that he had hoped that other studio chiefs would side with him, but he said, "No movie studio really wants to be first because it's like going over the hill first in battle. They don't want to take the most bullets." He said that theater chains have threatened to reduce the number of screens his movies are shown in if he attempts to narrow the gap between their theatrical and DVD release. "We'll have a conversation with theater owners to see whether we can move them more peacefully," he told the Journal. "But I think in the end, it's going to have to be more by force than through negotiation or diplomacy." Iger indicated that he recently proposed to the theater owners that they sell Chicken Little DVDs in their lobbies and share the profits from the sales. "But there's so much fear now about change that no one wants to sit down and have a frank discussion." In the same interview, Iger also indicated that Disney plans a substantial cutback in its feature output in the coming year, remarking, "I don't think the talent pool has expanded enough to feed the number of movies being made. ... At Miramax, we're using the opportunity of ending the relationship with Harvey and Bob Weinstein to cut back our investment in that business by hundreds of millions of dollars."
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Re: shrinking window 06 Dec 2005 17:16 #12044

  • editor
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I am putting my money where my mouth is by not taking Narnia on my small town single screens. There are only two of them but it is a start. There is no way I will be browbeaten into a four week run on anything. This included Star Wars which I never played. Disney is po'ed especially after they had a print reserved for me assuming I would change my mind. No such luck. I will do just fine with other fare during Christmas at much better terms. Should be able to get Cheaper 2 for 60-40 on a two week for example.
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Re: shrinking window 07 Dec 2005 10:13 #12045

  • D. Bird
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OK, so it's just "fear of change"? That's so much BS. Not fear at all, it's that theatre owner's KNOW that this is a fundamental, possibly detrimental polar shift in their livlihood.

"Fear of change" is almost as irrelevant as people who use "Don't judge me" to excuse themselves from innappropriate behavior. Of course we "judge" people, it's how we know to deal with, trust or evaluate our own level of safety.

Is it me, or is it mainly the corporate accountants who preach not to "fear change".
And really, how dare the studio heads talk of "going over the hill into battle" with the theatres that made them rich for a hundred years. I hope nobody plays their sh*tty movies.
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Re: shrinking window 07 Dec 2005 12:58 #12046

I can sense a fierce storm picking up momentum. There is going to be one nasty fight among the theatres and Disney... I expect most other studios are going to stand back and watch closely.

Disney is probably going to find that its no longer welcome in a lot of theatres now, but I still don't understand how this whole cut out the theatres is cutting out the middle man at all.

A print goes directly to theatres: Each admission brings them in 70% of ticket sales on average. Lets say that that's $7.00 on a typical $10.00 admission. That's a lot of money, very quickly. If they eliminate us, they still have the retailers who are going to sell and rent out their videos. That's a middle man. I think its something like $80.00 a rental copy for rental stores to purchase, which, after 16 rents is fully paid for. And, then you have the mark up for the sale copies.

The studios are bound to lose by this. People aren't going to run out one weekend and buy a DVD of *A NEW BLOCKBUSTER ON ITS PREMIERE WEEKEND* because it stars Angelina Jolie, Tom Cruise or a cartoon character. A few will, A LOT won't.

Let the battle begin...
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Re: shrinking window 07 Dec 2005 14:54 #12047

  • leeler
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I have to agree with Andrew on this. Disney may well give it a shot and they may believe they will sell more DVDs in the long run as a result, but enough to make up for the profits from its' theatrical run? I don't think so!
"What a crazy business"
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Re: shrinking window 07 Dec 2005 22:11 #12048

  • Narrow Gauge
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It's not dvds that they ultimately want to sell but dwnloads from the web and video on demand. The idea being that as downloads become faster and faster more and more people will acquire movies like they acquire music. Internet purchasing of music now exceeds all conventional retail stores like Tower records etc.

All this being said as long as National Amusements(owned by Sumner Redstone, CEO of Viacom and Paramount Pictures)continues to build cinemas I won't panic just yet.
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Re: shrinking window 09 Dec 2005 00:44 #12049

I think I know what to do.

We don't like to be told what to do withour business, right? We don't like them making unrealistic demands of us, right? We're getting by right now, right?

Let's step back and not tell the studios how to run their business.

Let's just lurk in the shadows as they try these different methods, and watch them come crawling back. We knew it was time for a change (of power)!


So, are the movies dead right now? Pretty much. A few titles look like they'll bring in some good crowds, and they're being advertised heavily. These movies being: Memoirs of a Geisha, Fun with Dick & Jane and The Ringer.

Are the theatres dead right now? Only because they're supplier is crapping out.

[This message has been edited by Andrew McCrea (edited December 09, 2005).]
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Re: shrinking window 09 Dec 2005 21:41 #12050

  • leeler
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http://www.homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=8342

Theatrical-to-DVD Window Tightens
Author: HOLLY J. WAGNER
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Posted: December 7, 2005
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The window between theatrical and video shrunk an average of 15 days this year as studios looked to stem piracy, accelerate revenue cycles and get more mileage from theatrical marketing buzz, but will stabilize after that, according to Kagan Research.

Kagan analysts estimate the average is 129 days from theatrical premiere to video release in 2005, versus 144 days in 2004.

While the home video industry may not lament the shrinking windows, Kagan analyst Wade Holden believes the gap will stabilize at roughly the existing 4.6 months window.

"If it shrinks significantly more, it would encroach on the box office," he said. "And that would be counterproductive to the distributors' total economic returns because what's lost in theatrical probably won't be fully made up in home video."

Films with $10 million to $29 million in domestic box office went into video on average in 115 days this year, while films that grossed $30 million or more in domestic theatrical box office averaged 132 days or longer to video, according to Kagan.

Of nine film genres the company tracks, action films were the fastest to slug their way to video, averaging 119 days this year. The longest window was for documentaries, which averaged 158 days, a result of their long theatrical runs in few theaters.

"With DVD popularity infusing the home video business, advertising budgets for video release have become comparable to theatrical ad budgets," Holden said. "This should be no surprise because distributors make more in video than in theatrical release."
"What a crazy business"
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