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Review my projected attendance? 28 Oct 2004 12:40 #9241

  • izod
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Hey everyone. First and foremost I wanted to thank everyone for all their help! This site has been invaluable. When doing my income calculations for the business plan, I had to come up with some estimated average attendance for the theater as a whole. Does this look off?:
Weekend fill
Dec 04 - 10%
Jan 05 - 13%
Feb 05 - 14%
Mar 05 - 14%
Apr 05 - 14%
May 05 - 19%
June 05 - 19%
July 05 - 19%
Aug 05 - 19%
Sept 05 - 11%
Oct 05 - 11%
Nov 05 - 13%
Dec 05 - 13%
Jan 06 - 15%
Feb 06 - 15%
Mar 06 - 15%
Apr 06 - 15%
May 06 - 20%
June 06 - 20%
July 06 - 20%
Aug 06 - 20%
Sept 06 - 12%
Oct 06 - 12%
Nov 06 -14%
Dec 06 - 14%
Jan 07 - 16%
Feb 07 - 16%
Mar 07 - 16%
Apr 07 - 16%
May 07 - 21%
June 07 - 21%
July 07 - 21%
Aug 07 - 21%
Sept 07 - 13%
Oct 07 - 13%
Nov 07 - 15%

Weekday fill
Dec 04 - 2%
Jan 05 - 4%
Feb 05 - 4%
Mar 05 - 4%
Apr 05 - 4%
May 05 - 5%
June 05 - 7%
July 05 - 7%
Aug 05 - 6%
Sept 05 - 5%
Oct 05 - 3%
Nov 05 - 4%
Dec 05 - 6%
Jan 06 - 5%
Feb 06 - 5%
Mar 06 - 5%
Apr 06 - 5%
May 06 - 6%
June 06 - 8%
July 06 - 8%
Aug 06 - 7%
Sept 06 - 6%
Oct 06 - 4%
Nov 06 -5%
Dec 06 - 7%
Jan 07 - 6%
Feb 07 - 6%
Mar 07 - 6%
Apr 07 - 6%
May 07 - 7%
June 07 - 9%
July 07 - 9%
Aug 07 - 8%
Sept 07 - 7%
Oct 07 - 5%
Nov 07 - 6%

Thanks all!!! If I get this off the ground everyone'll be invited to some festivities.
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Re: Review my projected attendance? 28 Oct 2004 13:19 #9242

  • Mike Spaeth
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You'll be much better off budgeting based on total number of patrons. There is typically a concrete number of patrons, and adjusting the number of seats typically will not affect the concrete attendance in the theatre (except in extreme high-occupany rates). Your best bet will be to come up with a screen count, number of seats ... then come up with some concrete numbers (3000/wk) rather then percentages.
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Re: Review my projected attendance? 28 Oct 2004 13:30 #9243

  • izod
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What's the best way to forecast this data? With this, I had a spreadsheet with total number of seats, and it calculated attendance based off the above figures. Any recommendations? If you were to do an average percentage of your fill-rate, would it look similar to this? Thanks!
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Re: Review my projected attendance? 05 Nov 2004 01:40 #9244

  • Mike Spaeth
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I have a spreadsheet you can use for forecasting attendance/payroll for a year ... you can "play" with different numbers and see what you come up with. The easiest way to come up with a realistic forecast is to compare with a similar theatre in a similar area ... with a subscription to Rentrak or EDI, you can usually pull at least their box office gross for a year, which is a good starting point.
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Re: Review my projected attendance? 06 Nov 2004 03:26 #9245

  • Dominic
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How would you say is the best method to get the percentage of a population who buy movie tickets?
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Re: Review my projected attendance? 06 Nov 2004 10:04 #9246

  • RoxyVaudeville
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According to the most recent edition of NATOs Encyclopedia of Exhibition, the 2003/2004 edition, which uses statistics for the year 2002, about 28% of those 12 and older go to the movies frequently(F). Frequently is defined as at least once a month. 35% go occasionaly(O) which is defined as once in 2 to 6 months. About 11% go Infrequently(I) meaning less then once in 6 months. 26% NEVER go.

Teenagers 12 to 17 are as follows:
F - 46%
O - 42%
I - 9%
Never - 2%
Didn't respond - 1%

Adults 18 and older:
F - 25%
O - 34%
I - 11%
Never - 29%
Didn't respond - 1%

Moviegoing by age:
12 to 15 - 10%
16 to 20 - 17%
21 to 24 - 12%
25 to 29 - 11 %
30 to 39 - 17%
40 to 49 - 15%
50 to 59 - 8%
60 and over - 9%
Didn't respond - 1%

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