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TOPIC: Revenue Projection method

Revenue Projection method 06 Mar 2004 13:50 #7646

  • WGA
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I wanted to ask what members of the board think about the best way to project revenue. I have read posts and seen several variations:
-a per seat amount that is industry avg.
-a percentage of population x avg. ticket price + avg. concession
-a more detailed percentage of demographics (age groups)
What do members think is the best way? Has anyone done projections that have actually come close to reality? Thanks for the help, this is for a startup by the way
R.M.
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Re: Revenue Projection method 08 Mar 2004 12:13 #7647

  • CharlieBo
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I think the best way to get a good projection is:
Take a theatre(or two) in a similar population,demographic and competitive area.Use their annual boxoffice gross.Figure in concession sales at 35-40% of boxoffice,giving you an annual total gross.Figure film rental at about 53% of boxoffice(first run) and cost of concesions at about 30-35% of concessions sales.Plug in your operating costs,andf you should come up with a good estimate
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Re: Revenue Projection method 08 Mar 2004 17:09 #7648

  • revrobor
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Charlie is right.

Most industry averages are based on operations in metro areas or large cities. Your projections will be affected by the type of product you intend to run, the demographic of your area and which or how many you plan to cater to, your hours of operation, the promotion you plan on doing, the size of your house and your overhead.

The projection for my planned project were based on all that plus response to my inquires among local residents and my experience in the business.

Bob Allen
The Old Showman
Bob Allen
The Old Showman
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Re: Revenue Projection method 08 Mar 2004 19:18 #7649

  • Mike
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It's all black magic that becomes easier to predict in smaller markets. In big markets: you have butts to fight for to fill your seats but you've got to take them from somebody!

Michael Hurley
Impresario
Michael Hurley
Impresario
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Re: Revenue Projection method 08 Mar 2004 20:17 #7650

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Thanks,

I did the first two and came out with similar numbers. I figure it will be hard to get the grosses from a couple of similar movie theatres in similar demographic areas since most are not easy to part with that sort of info. I am going to use the NATO encyclopedia for that detailed demographic (age group) breakout and see how close I come to the first two methods. I still have to get the book.

p.s. great website...learned a lot of new things
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Re: Revenue Projection method 10 Mar 2004 14:57 #7651

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I once read a mini-major film exhibitor say "we like to build in the smaller markets of 250-500,000 people."

I divided my 10 mile ring population by tik sales and got 2.91 and 3.33 tiks per person sold.

I then did the 20 mile ring: and in two different locales it's .90 to 2.57.

And then: are there other screens? Other theatres? Etc. etc.
Michael Hurley
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