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For my market analysis, i'm using Target Market * 70% * 4 visits/yr to calculate attendance... and actually i'm removing some of that to account for competition.

My concept is not really "dinner and a movie", i need a different name (suggestions welcome). The concept is slightly larger seating for more comfort plus a table space for setting food a drinks. In addition to traditional concessions, i also want to provide a menu from a kitchen that can be enjoyed during the opening of the movie....

These forums are a vast wealth of knowledge for movie theaters - but i don't see much information on the "dinner and a movie" concept... I've made some estimates, but if anyone could point me at some good research, real use cases, or even if someone could suggest a consultant they've used and has experience with this setup

Contact www.mcmenamins.com/. They are in the Portland, Oregon area and have 65 theatre pubs and theatre cafes. Perhaps they will give you some tips.

there are lots and lots of places such as you describe from Alamo to Spankys to many indies/ Reel Pizza in Bar harbor Maine uses a bingo board to let you know your food is ready B-11! BINGO!, Suncoast in Jacksonville Florida. If you are about to invest in your life and spend a lot of time and money: I suggest a road trip and see 5-6 of these. here's google movie theatre with food service www.google.com/search?q=food+and+movie&i...a3c&biw=1280&bih=576

thanks guys - always interested in collecting more ideas for my concept, but i've actually got a very large notes catalog for my concept (and i've been to several - some successful, some not... with plans to head down to texas later this year to visit a few alamos). The heart of this post was more about predicting attendance for my venue for my business plan. Any advice there?

I think it will be difficult to predict attendance. Your chances of being successful are better if your place is different from anything else in the area. What you offer in the way of food and on the screen will also affect your attendance. As you visit the Alamos make special note of those in the same situation as yours and that should give you a good idea.

A THETER BY ME DOES BEER,WINE-ALL FOOD -- THERE PER CAP IS $17.00 PER PERSON.

Good to know - my sales forecasting is at 17.5 per cap (although i was feeling that might be low after reviewing some financial statements from other shops).

I'm still not comfortable with my attendance predictions though. I have this nagging feeling that if i took my projection to an investor or to the bank, they'd ask me for research data to back it up... is using cinema theater trends (target market * 70% * 4/yr) an acceptable barometer for a cinema/drafthouse?

Has anyone hired a company to do a market analysis to better predict what attendance might be given different variables for a new venue? I have 3 or 4 big factors that change my market size... which has a huge affect on my projections, any way to narrow this down would be a big help.

70/4 -- I believe to be high --that being said take that number and divide it by theaters in the area ,then divide it by the number of screens .

ALLEGEDLY 9.5 % OF THE POPULATION GOES TO THE MOVIES EACH WEEK.

i'm not sure i follow slap...

if my 5 mile market catch is 100k and i'm in competition with 1 other theater with 12 screens - i should look for an annual attendance around 23k?

Your market should be at least 10 miles ---- take that population and use your 70/4 rule then divide by total screens including your new ones.
That should give you a yearly attendance per screen following above .

so your population is 100,000= 70,000 go to theaters x 4=280,000
Divide that by number of screens including yours...

I did not see how many screens you are thinking of??

i was thinking of a 6 screen.

If i extend the market catchment to 10 miles, the population in grows to 292k. The two theaters serving this side of town and part of the 10 mile market i'm planning to build in together have 34 screens. So total screen count would be 40.

292000*.7*4 = 817,600 total attendance for all screens/yr
divide by 40 screens = 20440 per screen
multiply by my 6 screens to be built = 122640/year forecasted attendance

makes me happier... certainly higher then my other forecast... thoughts?

USING THIS FORMULA-- NOT THAT I AGREE 100% WITH IT---
393-- PEOPLE PER WEEK PER SCREEN
20 SHOWS PER WEEK PER SCREEN-- THATS 20 PEOPLE PER SHOW

If you are the only one doing food and drinks 10 miles is perfectly acceptable range.

sure - i'm just looking for a forecast that i'll later use as a goal... helps me determine budgets for startup.

Thanks for the input! (mine would be the only theater with drinks and food in the city - that could change, but i would be the first... and it would be my charge to differentiate my business from the others) Thanks again