leeler,
It’s often a tough decision to decide whether to hold over or not, especially when you are a single screen theatre and the only one in town.
You have to make that decision based on what is best for your theatre.
This has been an incredible year thus far. There is a lot of product and much of it has done well enough to hold for 2nd and sometimes 3rd weeks. As a single screen theatre you can only play 52 pictures a year if you change every week, and there are hundreds and hundreds of movies released every year. Many of course, not worth wasting your time with, but often some of those films are ones that a sizeable segment of your audience would like to see. Often you can run some of those films just for special matinees or late shows.
Then again, we always have certain times of the year when it’s difficult to find even one film that will do well enough to at least break even, let alone make any money. Those are the weeks that you wish you would have held something doing well, that you didn’t, so that you wouldn’t be in the position to have to play some turkey.
You’ve been in the business long enough now to have seen a pattern emerge, whereby you know pretty much just how much a certain type of picture will drop on a 2nd week. I know that at my theatre, depending on the type of movie, that business can drop between 25% to 50% the 2nd week… but most of the time between 30 to 35%. Using those figures, if the drop will still allow me to break even by holding over, I will hold. If product is really weak, and I realize that a picture will lose money the 2nd week, but lose LESS money than anything available, I’ll still hold. One exception is when I have product that will fall behind the DVD release date if not played, then, I will not hold unless I’m doing extremely well (Thank you Warner Bros. for making that happen often).
Being the only game in town, does indeed put the pressure on to move on and play more product. If you have enough product to change every week and make money on most of the weeks, in your situation, I would change. Hold only those films that you see a large demand from the public to have extra time to allow them the chance to see it, or you know that you’ll make some big bucks by holding it.
I wouldn’t worry about what the distributor wants, unless he demanded two weeks up front and you agreed to it. Tell him that if he’s willing to pay your loss the 2nd week, you’ll hold. If not, you’re moving on.