Banner
Home Forums Movie Theaters The Lobby The Ever Increasing 'Fudge Factor'
Welcome, Guest
Username: Password: Remember me
  • Page:
  • 1

TOPIC: The Ever Increasing 'Fudge Factor'

The Ever Increasing 'Fudge Factor' 26 Nov 2007 11:34 #16827

  • muviebuf
  • muviebuf's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 686
  • Thank you received: 1
  • Karma: 0
Everyone who has been in this business knows that the estimated grosses provided by the studios are generous and usually rounded upwards. There has always been some stretching - particularly where two pictures are vying for number one slot in a particular weekend.

However in the past year I have seen a real increase in what I call the 'Fudge Factor' - where it appears that grosses are not merely inflated but rather appear to be works of fiction.


ENCHANTED - Does anyone here believe this really did $50 Million over the past five days. There was very little business for it on Wed and Thurs. And it has no 9 PM business at all.

AMERICAN GANGSTER - It has been noted on several message boards the oddity that Gangster supposedly beat BEE MOVIE on its opening weekend - and by several million dollars. I have not talked to one theatre where Gangster beat the Bee on a per screen basis on its opening weekend. Factor in also the plethora of high grade bootleg DVDS floating around and there is no way I believe this title did what Universal has proclaimed. Of course Universal had to counter the criticism that they let this one slip out to DVD so naturally you would expect them to try and prove the picture did business.


FANTASTIC FOUR: RISE OF SILVER SURFER - Fox (which up to that point in 2007 had not had hit) claimed this miserable sequel beat the opening weekend gross of the original and ended up with about 135 Million nationally for its entire run. No theatres that I know of did much business with this at all. I would estimate that the national gross on this one to be inflated by as much as 40%.

300 - Anybody really believe this did 70 Million on its opening weekend? (Contrast this with WILD HOGS which was a true 'grass roots' hit)

RED DRAGON - Back in 2002 this picture has the distinction of being the first title where I really came to believe in the 'Fudge Factor' method of studio accounting. At my theatre this title has the distiction of being the lowest grosser in several years. Yet it supposedly opened to 36 Million nationally. I have yet to meet anyone who bought a ticket to this title!

[This message has been edited by muviebuf (edited November 26, 2007).]

[This message has been edited by muviebuf (edited November 26, 2007).]
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: The Ever Increasing 'Fudge Factor' 26 Nov 2007 15:53 #16828

  • slapintheface
  • slapintheface's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2297
  • Thank you received: 8
  • Karma: 36
I do believe the grosses are correct ...you would have to believe that rentrak is lying about the numbers and that the theater chains are in on it too.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: The Ever Increasing 'Fudge Factor' 26 Nov 2007 15:56 #16829

  • slapintheface
  • slapintheface's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2297
  • Thank you received: 8
  • Karma: 36
Enchanted in SC, did $5,ooo to $8,ooo per screen per day ..
American gangster did better than Bee movie by far....
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: The Ever Increasing 'Fudge Factor' 26 Nov 2007 15:57 #16830

  • slapintheface
  • slapintheface's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2297
  • Thank you received: 8
  • Karma: 36
movie do you belong to rentrak??? The numbers come in live every day ..you can see them come in .....
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: The Ever Increasing 'Fudge Factor' 26 Nov 2007 17:20 #16831

  • rdetzler
  • rdetzler's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Expert Boarder
  • Posts: 116
  • Karma: 0
I have to admit that I have often felt these numbers are works of creative fiction. I'll agree with every one of the movies listed above. Certainly Enchanted did not seem like a 50MM movie to me and I play almost exclusively kids movies. Also, I dont see how a movie that caters almost exclusively to 'princesses' (ie tween girls) can possibly do 50MM when a significant portion of your viewing audience isnt interested in the material. I'll bet my audience was 8 to 1 little girls versus little boys.

Also, to those of you that think Rentrak is some well of accuracy, these are 'estimates'. Who is to say how much attention studios give the early reported actuals when creating an 'estimate'? I dont see Rentrak producing 'estimates' nor do I see a little asterisk next to estimates that says * based on actuals reported to Rentrak as of the date MM/DD/YY. The studios release these figures and dont quote their sources, that tells me there is plenty of room for creative accounting.

On the flip side, since most movies are predicated on back end deals these days it is a risky position to overstate your revenues when the actors accountants and lawyers are watching.

Who knows, but I have good experience in kids movies, I was nervous about Enchanted because I felt the marketing was weak, and the movie too segmented toward tween girls. I took it but I stand by my own judgement. It played exactly the way I thought it would, and underperformed any other kids movie I have seen open at 50MM.

Roger
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: The Ever Increasing 'Fudge Factor' 26 Nov 2007 18:09 #16832

  • slapintheface
  • slapintheface's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2297
  • Thank you received: 8
  • Karma: 36
But to check the numbers to see if the estimates are right one has to only go to rentrak and look at the grosses ...

Variety prints estimates and then actual ...

I did not play ENCHANTED but the grosses were massive around here..You must look at the big city numbers not the country numbers.....
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: The Ever Increasing 'Fudge Factor' 27 Nov 2007 13:29 #16833

  • Mike
  • Mike's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Administrator
  • Posts: 4961
  • Thank you received: 37
  • Karma: 15
I agree on the "big vs. little" point. The numbers that urban and suburban plexes put up are simply unfathomable for the smaller town theatre such as myself. I recall when Titanic was playing there was an ad by Paramount thanking the top 100 grossing theatres and how much they had grossed and the smallest one listed had grossed more on Titanic than I had for my entire year with 3 screens for all movies.

I think the studios and distribs do blow it up at the start to try and drive the story... "don't miss out on the big thing!" but the actuals I believe.

Michael Hurley
Impresario
Michael Hurley
Impresario
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: The Ever Increasing 'Fudge Factor' 29 Nov 2007 06:07 #16834

  • Pieman
  • Pieman's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Gold Boarder
  • Posts: 175
  • Karma: 0
hmm.. the annoying part about that if it is created is that the Aussie distributors use those figures to fleece more screen times per day, longer seasons and higher percentages out of us.. we then get these supposed million dollar earners and end up with 3 people on a friday night..we complain and the distributors just say "well it grossed x million dollars in USA" and try to make it look like its our fault..that we aren't advertising enough to draw people in!!
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: The Ever Increasing 'Fudge Factor' 29 Nov 2007 11:51 #16835

  • slapintheface
  • slapintheface's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 2297
  • Thank you received: 8
  • Karma: 36
This might be the most ridiculous TOPIC in all the years on this board.

There was a ufo over my house last night also.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: The Ever Increasing 'Fudge Factor' 29 Nov 2007 12:47 #16836

  • muviebuf
  • muviebuf's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 686
  • Thank you received: 1
  • Karma: 0
SLAP - I bet you bought Enron stock too!
The administrator has disabled public write access.
  • Page:
  • 1
Time to create page: 0.284 seconds
attraction attraction
attraction
attraction
attraction
attraction