I knew someone would bring up Rush Hour 3.
I am in out-state Missouri. I have owned video stores for 15 years. Neither of the first two were anything great for us on home video. We have very little diversity. Our area is very white. Typically a movie has to have Denzel, Eddie, or Vin to do any business. Even with Eddie, Norbit did very poor for us.
I looked up RH2 box office in our area on rentrak's site and did not do what a movie that grossed $67 million opening weekend normally might do. The numbers seem to be more in line with a $30 million box office.
I do think that Rush Hour 3 might be the safe bet, but Stardust has the larger uspide. If Stardust were to be a stinker, it downside would not be that far off of expected Rush Hour 3. Plus I think people are going to get tired of sequels at some point.
As far as Superbad goes; in the 8 mos. that we have been opened, we have not had an "R" rated movie. The 15-25 year olds are not are demographic as of right now. Plus it has no star power.