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TOPIC: more bad news !

more bad news ! 07 Mar 2007 22:06 #14570

  • Narrow Gauge
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While I hate to report more bad news....IMDB.com is reporting a new study which suggests that closing the window completely would result in a 16% increase in revenue for the studios. It also predicts a 40% decrease in revenue for cinemas.
I would love to know who paid for the study....three guesses and the first two don't count.
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Re: more bad news ! 07 Mar 2007 23:00 #14571

  • rufusjack
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Well IMDB is owned by Amazon right?
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Re: more bad news ! 08 Mar 2007 04:18 #14572

  • HollywoodOz
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What the studios don't seem to get is that small increases in the short term can kill you in the long term.

When you kill the movie experience (and this will), you take away the advantage of a DVD release having been a big screen success, and you also remove the quality that makes movies different to video games and YouTube videos - their size and importance.

Movies matter only because of the theatrical experience. A box office smash seen in a big audience is a sight to behold, and it convinces others to come see when word gets out.

But who gives a damn about the DVD Top 10?

Blockbuster learned this lesson the hard way. Raising late fees was a great strategy to increase profits, until people got sick of being jacked for fees and stopped renting there.

For so many years, Blockbuster failed to give the customers anything back - they didn't foster a love for good film in their audience (instead stocking 87 copies of The Hot Chick), they didn't cut the customer any breaks financially, they sold off old movies when they weren't renting well and left new releases on shelves forever at higher prices, they staffed their stores with utter maroons, and the customers duly took a hike. Now Blockbuster is losing fat money while trying to get those same customers to come back.

Closing the window will be the exact same kind of move; It'll pay initial dividends as customers go on a mild spree of watching movies still in theaters, and then it'll get old, and then theaters will start closing, and then people will stop going, and then they'll start to stop caring about even DVD.

Is that really worth 16% in the short term?

Sadly... to the rubes who make these decisions, probably.
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Re: more bad news ! 08 Mar 2007 11:28 #14573

If we're going down, we're taking the studios with us.
Since 1987
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Re: more bad news ! 08 Mar 2007 12:03 #14574

  • Mike
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.... and? The sky is falling.

I have not seen the study but I'll bet there are some "unknowables" as our late great Sec Def would like to say.

Those unknowables might cause the collapse of the Hollywood film industry. And they know it.

Until I see it, I won't believe it. No matter how many times some yells the sky the sky is falling.

Michael Hurley
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Michael Hurley
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Re: more bad news ! 08 Mar 2007 16:41 #14575

  • revrobor
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If we give the movie-going public what they cannot get at home (the "Theatre Experience") closing the window will not close our houses. We need to become "Showmen" once again and be creative in the way we present and promote what we book and not depend on the distributors or the films they are promoting to make us succeed.

Bob Allen
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Bob Allen
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Re: more bad news ! 08 Mar 2007 17:33 #14576

  • Mike
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On that point I disagree. We do need good films and a new steady stream. And if people know about the films in advance it is always better business. This is a partnership. A store needs good products and ones that people have seen advertised, etc. are in demand. Restaurants need good suppliers. We are not in a vacuum. We need gifted talented film makers and distributors and they need us.

Michael Hurley
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Michael Hurley
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Re: more bad news ! 09 Mar 2007 20:38 #14577

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What I mean to say Mike is that we should not depend on only what the major distributors are promoting. There are many talented filmmakers that are not part of the "Big-Boys" group and if we would return to being showmen instead of booking only what the major distributors are pushing we don't need to worry about the window being closed.

Bob Allen
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Bob Allen
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Re: more bad news ! 10 Mar 2007 01:02 #14578

  • BurneyFalls
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The problem with that is nobody shows up for those films--at least in my burgs.
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Re: more bad news ! 10 Mar 2007 06:59 #14579

  • jacker5
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Well Mike has always promoted Indy films with his film festivals.
Also he has many times that he advertises the lil movies and has played them all.
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Re: more bad news ! 10 Mar 2007 11:14 #14580

  • sevstar
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Took me awhile to track down this whole article. Imdb tends to only put up blurbs on their web site with no links.
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6420014.html

Study finds benefit to simultaneous release
Researchers say studio revenue would increase with same-day DVD/theatrical debut
By Jennifer Netherby 2/27/2007

FEB. 27 | Releasing a movie simultaneously in theaters and on DVD could boost studio revenue, according to a new study by a group of international researchers.

The report, “The Last Picture Show? Timing and Order of Movie Distribution,” found that studios stand to gain a 16% increase in revenue in the U.S. if they release films in theaters, on rental DVD and video-on-demand at the same time, followed three months later by a DVD sell-through release. Though studios would benefit from increased revenue under the scenario, theaters stand to lose. Theatrical revenue would fall by 40%, researchers predict.

The study, done by marketing professors in Germany, the U.K. and the U.S., will be published in the October issue of Journal of Marketing. Researchers included professors and doctorate students from the University of Hamburg and Bauhaus University in Germany, Case Business School in the U.K. and the University of Missouri in the U.S.

Researchers studied data from 1,770 consumers in the U.S., Japan and Germany to study how theatrical, DVD and VOD revenue for films have shifted and how different distribution scenarios would benefit studios.

The U.S. is the only country in which a simultaneous release would grow studio revenue. Researchers found that to boost revenue in Germany and Japan, studios would need to release movies for sale on DVD three months after their theatrical debut, followed by a DVD rental release and VOD release one year after the theatrical opening.

The theatrical business would grow in those countries under that scenario, but the video rental business would decline.

“We’re not advocating changes,” said Mark Houston, associate professor of marketing at the College of Business at the University of Missouri-Columbia. “We simply examined what would happen if there were changes to the distribution process by looking at it from the studio’s perspective, because the studios are the risk takers.”

Researchers found that in the U.S., studios could improve profit margins without reducing theater revenue by pushing back the DVD rental window and VOD window. Under that scenario, a film would first debut in theaters, followed three months later by a DVD sell-through debut with slightly higher pricing, followed three months later by the DVD rental and VOD release.

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Re: more bad news ! 13 Mar 2007 01:46 #14581

  • HollywoodOz
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"Researchers found that in the U.S., studios could improve profit margins without reducing theater revenue by pushing back the DVD rental window and VOD window. Under that scenario, a film would first debut in theaters, followed three months later by a DVD sell-through debut with slightly higher pricing, followed three months later by the DVD rental and VOD release."

Well, that puts a whole different spin on it, huh?

Thanks for the selective editing, IMDB...
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Re: more bad news ! 13 Mar 2007 15:10 #14582

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There is one huge problem with a movie being released to sell-through first then to rental: "First Sale Doctrine".

As a video store owner, I can rent and sell any legally obtained movie. So I would just buy my copies at the sell-through date and rent them out.

Therefore no window for sales without rentals.
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Re: more bad news ! 13 Mar 2007 21:46 #14583

  • leeler
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I do the same thing, rufusjack. I get mine on the day of release and rent them out immediately.
"What a crazy business"
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