Banner
Home Forums Movie Theaters The Lobby 2007 Predictions
Welcome, Guest
Username: Password: Remember me
  • Page:
  • 1

TOPIC: 2007 Predictions

2007 Predictions 01 Jan 2007 16:39 #14086

  • Narrow Gauge
  • Narrow Gauge's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Gold Boarder
  • Posts: 208
  • Thank you received: 2
  • Karma: 0
Looking ahead to the film releases I will predict a very good year at the boxoffice.
I am also encouraged to see a rival to boxoffice magazine-the competition should improve coverage of our industry.
I also predict that no entity will challenge NATO for membership and hence we will continue to be represented by narrow minded men like Fithian. This is very unfortunate.
We still won't have the answers we need about d-cinema.
Theater owners will continue to tell a disbelieving public that they pay 90% of boxoffice receipts to the film company(My % this year was 53%)
I predict that the chains will continue to raise their prices to the benefit of independents everywhere.
Overall I am much more optimistic this year than last-a good thing I think.

Your predictions?


The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: 2007 Predictions 01 Jan 2007 17:08 #14087

  • sevstar
  • sevstar's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 527
  • Thank you received: 9
  • Karma: 0
The product available for the first 12 weeks or so of 2007 look fairly dreary. But after that hold on to your hat!


Real good to finally see some competition for trade magazines in our industry. NATO's In-Focus I never really considered a trade magazine. But more of a mouth piece for NATO. And now In-Focus and Boxoffice will merge together. At least we now have the new kid on the block Screen Trade that is independent.

No doubt the chains will raise prices. At least three states I know of raised minimum wage as of today Jan 1st. And I see the feds upping it nationwide sometime in 07. Chain Corporate offices won't just absorb those increases.

Any help with Digital cinema for independents is a joke so far. What happened to the Cinema Buyers Group(CBG)? Last year is was JOIN NOW JOIN NOW! Have yet to hear of one single independent install through them.




The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: 2007 Predictions 02 Jan 2007 03:47 #14088

  • BPZ
  • BPZ's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Junior Boarder
  • Posts: 22
  • Karma: 0
53%!? Wow that was your percent on net box sales? I alway thought film companys received 75-90 percent of sales. Guess I was wrong.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: 2007 Predictions 02 Jan 2007 16:31 #14089

  • Mike
  • Mike's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Administrator
  • Posts: 5079
  • Thank you received: 45
  • Karma: 16
75-90???!!! No way. I think I was at 52.9 for last year and keep it there. That's with a large amount of first run openings. A standard is 70-60-50-35 for 4 weeks = 53.75%

Michael Hurley
Impresario
Michael Hurley
Impresario
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: 2007 Predictions 02 Jan 2007 16:33 #14090

  • Mike
  • Mike's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Administrator
  • Posts: 5079
  • Thank you received: 45
  • Karma: 16
1. ScreenTrade is welcome addition and will continue
2. More and more VIDEO projectors will be installed and utilized for a variety of programming
3. NATO will contine to do fine.
4. Great movies will come out of nowhere because artists rule.
5. min wage going up means tik price increase
6. I'll need a nap often.

More later.

Michael Hurley
Impresario
Michael Hurley
Impresario
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: 2007 Predictions 03 Jan 2007 01:35 #14091

  • BurneyFalls
  • BurneyFalls's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 1341
  • Karma: 0
Maybe I am confused, but, a 70-60-50-35 movie for 4 weeks equaling 53.75%, is not really an accurate figure. Yes, 53.75 is the average of the above numbers, but unless you have the same number of people each week, you will actually be paying a higher average percentage for the run than 53.75. I think a more realistic way to figure the average percentage would be to add the total movie payments for the year and divide that by total movie grosses for the year.

Mine was 43.7%, with only a few playing on the break; most were 3-4 weeks out.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: 2007 Predictions 03 Jan 2007 01:49 #14092

  • BurneyFalls
  • BurneyFalls's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 1341
  • Karma: 0
As far as this year's movies, it looks like a very good year. But, I am still in disbelief about the May triple showdown of Spidey (5/4), Shrek (5/18) and Pirates 5/26). Why not release them three weeks apart, with HP coming in in its scheduled 5/13 slot?
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: 2007 Predictions 03 Jan 2007 08:50 #14093

  • SamCat
  • SamCat's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Expert Boarder
  • Posts: 134
  • Thank you received: 1
  • Karma: 1
I this year is going to beat 2004. That's my prediction anyway.
I feel the sequels are going to be big business. And I think the big sequels get more people in the habit of going to the movies to also see some other films.
I added it up last week and with the sequels that I knew about there is something like around 17 sequels;over one per month. SO far I have listed the following sequels for 2007. These are for Australian release dates as well so the dates may change as I understand you guys have already released Rocky.

Rocky, Epic Movie, Hannibal Rising, The Hills Have Eyes 2, Are We Done Yet,Oceans 13, Spiderman 3, Shrek 3, Harry Potter and the order of the Pheonix, Pirates of the Carribean 3, Fantastic 4 Rise of the SIlver Surfer, Evan Almighty, The Bourne Ultimatum, Rush Hour 3, Sin City 2, Alien Versus Predator 2, Resident Evil 3

I also feel that alot more websites are putting trailers and reviews on the net. This is also going to substantially increase movies awareness and marketing.

I've looked through heaps of trailers and nearly all the movies released with dates in 2007 already have trailers on the net.

Just about every trailer that I see kind of makes me want to see that movie.

I had a quick look through at some box office info in the states and it looks like 2006 and 2004 is close to equal. Well I think the product looks alot better in 2007 than 2006 so you guys are going to kill them there. Below id the gross box office each year.
2006 $9,201.0
2005 $8,841.7
2004 $9,380.5
2003 $9,239.7
2002 $9,153.6

I remember this time last year we kind of weren't that confident in 06 but I think that the tide is turning this year.

The product to me looks very good.

And I think we are going to have our best year ever. To tell you the truth I am not even worried about DVD sales this year. I think the public have seen most of the old movies that they want to see and it's now the latest fashionable movies are at the cinema.

ANyway that's my thooughts so far. Let me know if you agaree or disagree.

The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: 2007 Predictions 03 Jan 2007 14:46 #14094

  • Tom Watkins
  • Tom Watkins's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Senior Boarder
  • Posts: 62
  • Karma: 0
Since NATO has been mentioned, I had assumed when I took over this theater it was a member of NATO. Seem we are not members...is there any real benefit from joining given some of the comments?

Tom Watkins
Magic Lantern Theater
Bridgton Maine
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: 2007 Predictions 03 Jan 2007 20:17 #14095

  • rufusjack
  • rufusjack's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 1496
  • Thank you received: 33
  • Karma: -7
The problem that I see is the spacing/timing of movies as well.

Yea, those movies for the summer look great, but...

This January absolutely sucks. My booker tells me that only 6-8 plexes and up will get anything new. Last year their were at least 3 films with over 3000 prints, 1 with 2500 and 2 others over 2200. Looks like only 2-3 might be lucky to have anything over 2000 this year but below 2500 prints. Plus it might hard to get anything in that 2000 print range for us small fish with the larger plexes holding onto movies longer with a horrible month. Nothing to push them off of their screens.

Can anyone see any of Feb. releases being more than 2500 prints?
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: 2007 Predictions 03 Jan 2007 21:03 #14096

  • sevstar
  • sevstar's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 527
  • Thank you received: 9
  • Karma: 0
I expect Norbit to go over 2500 prints in Feb.

The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: 2007 Predictions 04 Jan 2007 08:48 #14097

  • Tom Watkins
  • Tom Watkins's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Senior Boarder
  • Posts: 62
  • Karma: 0
Seems that print availability is one of the majro reasons for digital, eh? Will they begin to produce less prints as majors go to digital? That would leave all of us fighting for fewer prints?.. Makes one re-think going into debt for digital conversion.
Tom Watkins
Magic Lantern Theater
Bridgton Maine
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Re: 2007 Predictions 04 Jan 2007 19:32 #14098

  • Cinemateer
  • Cinemateer's Avatar
  • OFFLINE
  • Gold Boarder
  • Posts: 300
  • Karma: 0
Don't discount Transformers. Just saw the new HD trailer (not the teaser) and it's unreal. Transformers have been rediscovered the past couple of years, so it will cover this generation plus generations of past.
"In a place like this, the magic is all around you. The trick is to see it." -Martin Landau
The administrator has disabled public write access.
  • Page:
  • 1
Time to create page: 0.258 seconds
attraction attraction
attraction
attraction
attraction
attraction